Dr K V Bapa Rao from Los Angeles and I discuss the current situation in India-US relations.
Excerpt from the transcript:
We have had a little time to explore what the Biden presidency means in practice for India and more broadly for Asia, in the last few weeks. I don’t know about you, but I am severely underwhelmed, because I see the US blowing hot and cold towards India, while it is being sandbagged and humiliated by China, for instance in the Alaska encounter. As a life-long supporter of an India-US rapprochement, I must say I am disappointed.
On the Wuhanvirus vaccine imbroglio
For instance there was a lot of noise about vaccine cooperation in the Quad, but the reality is that Biden has used his war powers under the Defense Procurement Act in February to deny vaccine components to Indian manufacturers. Serum Institute of India made a public request to the White House to stop the embargo, and the way Press Secretary Psaki and the State Department guy sidestepped this issue altogether makes it sound like a punishment, an actual undeclared sanction. All this is not exactly confidence-inducing about the reliability of the US as an ally.
It’s complicated, as they say. About the Covid situation. It is heartbreaking, and even as we are speaking, the Biden administration’s response seems to be shifting somewhat. The story has dominated the headlines, and there is some pressure from the public on them to shed their earlier callous attitude… low-profile articles have appeared from sources that are presumably US pharma lobby mouthpieces, urging Biden to curb competition from the Indian Pharma industry, specifically to not make the vaccine inputs available to India. I don’t think this is a coincidence.
On the soft demonization of Modi
The Biden administration has bought into the prevailing facile global perception of India under Modi becoming authoritarian or majoritarian or something of that nature, and has plugged this perception into its formula to have, and keep the upper hand in the relationship with India. The relationship itself, though, hasn’t gone anywhere, and it’s largely positive and will stay that way.
Is Biden continuing down the Obama route?
I think Biden wants a legacy of having forged his own path, he has had enough of Obama’s shadow. As of now, I see elements of both Trump and Obama paradigms in his policy, when we subtract the question of personal style. We see the Obama paradigm in speaking softly and carrying a tiny stick.
On Afghanistan
Afghanistan is the nadir of American foreign policy because they refuse to see the obvious truth, that Pakistan is running with the hares and hunting with the hounds. Basically Pakistan defeated the Soviets with American help, and now have defeated the Americans with Chinese help. Can you see any logical reason why the Deep State has sacrificed American lives and money, all for… basically nothing?
We could have asked the same question about the Vietnam war, and would have come up with the same answer: the US military-industrial complex--the long-form name for the Deep State--is not particularly interested in the welfare of the American people or the lowly soldiers who fight in these wars. Let alone the welfare the people of the countries in which the wars are waged.
On China
The US public, despite the resonating effect of Trump’s anti-China rhetoric, is not all that keen on stopping cheap Chinese imports, and the corporate sector is not ready to give up its profitable engagement. So, there is no constituency there to make Biden take real steps on China. Even outside of politics, the China problem is hard for the US to really solve, due to the hardness of the problem itself, and also due to the intellectual limitations and timidity of the US policy establishment. They simply have no idea what to do about China, which is defiant, is a threat, and has a credible capability to severely hurt America.
I don’t believe any time is too late to build a more “atma-nirbhar America”, but that’s provided there is political intent, clarity vision and goals, willingness and capability to manage the process, and above all, readiness to take risks and bear the costs.
On FONOPS and other irritants
Their world view includes, as I mentioned earlier, the default idea that Modi is rebuilding India as an oppressive Hindu tyranny with the trappings of democracy. I believe that his administration has plugged this idea into its India-China strategy: India as a useful chess piece to keep China moderately in check, but a chess piece that cannot be allowed to have too much volition; and this is to be achieved by keeping India under pressure and keep it anxious about the relationship.
On climate change
In any case, if you look at the official US statement on the Kerry visit, it has only positive things to say about India’s role in climate change mitigation and its adherence to the Paris accords, and why not? India has more than kept its commitments. Again, keep in mind that the climate change constituency is one that Biden has to keep appeased, and that means sounding tough on China and India; China pushed back rudely in Alaska, and that leaves polite and diplomatic India as the whipping boy.
On neo-colonialism
And that is something that has continued from the old colonial-era vision, which of course relegates, as you said, the blacks and browns to a secondary, and maybe even dispensable position. This is of course not going to work as it did in the colonial era, hence the continuous string of failures in Vietnam, Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, and even with India, which has pretty much done whatever it needed to do for its national security, regardless of Western browbeating.
On the core US-India relationship: good despite irritants
To be a little less flippant, I think we are seeing a mild chill in the relationship, but that’s a good thing. It is a shift towards the natural equilibrium between the US and India, with less empty rhetoric. I think South Block, under Jaishankar, understands this, and is not too worried. it’ll be good if the Indian public also learns to get away from pegging its emotions to every shift in US rhetoric, swooning with delight when Trump says nice things, and fainting with shock when Biden says not-so-nice things. All the while, the core relationship is more or less the same, and pretty stable, as we discussed here.
Ep. 27: Dr K V Bapa Rao on President Biden and Indo-US relations: looking beyond the irritants