Question is does India have a big enough stick to wield, and will it have in say next 50-75 years. In the Hormuz instance - will India act against US and Israel to ensure freedom of passage - after all it is US/Israel that is the instigator not Iran? Irrespective of the actors - any one trying to break a blockade needs to have a big enough stick break it - military is only one arm of it.
hi San, my take is that with economic power, and, importantly, willingness, and self-reliance, military muscle will grow. it has to, given the Chinese ramp-up and expansion. can India be a guarantor of freedom of navigation everywhere purely by military means? probably not. nobody can, these days: see how the US is struggling. but the episodes with houthis and other pirates earlier show that strong military escorts can help. the other part of the story is that by providing the trade infrastructure, I hope that India can nudge recalcitrant powers to not break the trade corridors. none of this will be easy. if we think west Asia is difficult, wait until Chinese submarines start doing their thing in the straits of Malacca. all India can do is to bulk up and offer ease of trade.
Question is does India have a big enough stick to wield, and will it have in say next 50-75 years. In the Hormuz instance - will India act against US and Israel to ensure freedom of passage - after all it is US/Israel that is the instigator not Iran? Irrespective of the actors - any one trying to break a blockade needs to have a big enough stick break it - military is only one arm of it.
hi San, my take is that with economic power, and, importantly, willingness, and self-reliance, military muscle will grow. it has to, given the Chinese ramp-up and expansion. can India be a guarantor of freedom of navigation everywhere purely by military means? probably not. nobody can, these days: see how the US is struggling. but the episodes with houthis and other pirates earlier show that strong military escorts can help. the other part of the story is that by providing the trade infrastructure, I hope that India can nudge recalcitrant powers to not break the trade corridors. none of this will be easy. if we think west Asia is difficult, wait until Chinese submarines start doing their thing in the straits of Malacca. all India can do is to bulk up and offer ease of trade.