Ep. 111: BRICS+, and other Chinese moves: Do these spell bad news, or even war, for India?
The new BRICS members are all pals of China; Xi boycotting the G20 and publishing a map claiming Arunachal are belligerent actions; and Pew's account of attitudes towards India are discouraging
A version of this essay was published by thepamphlet.in at https://www.thepamphlet.in/english/shadow-warrior-brics-chinas-moves-pew-survey-more-bad-news-than-good-for-india/
While India is basking in the afterglow of the success of Chandrayaan-3, and deservedly so, it would seem churlish to speak about things going on behind India’s back, as it were, that will be harmful to her interests. But there have been a few negative incidents in the recent past, and it would be useful to understand what they mean.
First was the expansion of the BRICS grouping to BRICS+ with the addition of several new countries (amid considerable interest and applications allegedly by some 30 countries). The question is how this affects India’s interests both short-term and long-term.
Second was the likelihood that Xi Jinping will not, after all, be attending the G20 summit in New Delhi. Right on top of the news that the Chinese army is digging itself in, in the occupied territory of Aksai Chin, with massive underground bunkers and tunnels which is, to put it bluntly, saber-rattling, not to mention their latest map offensive that claims Arunachal Pradesh.
Third was the Pew report on attitudes towards India across the G20. Let’s be honest about it, the perceptions about India are poor, although I am sure things have improved over time.
BRICS is not any longer a cute acronym coined by Goldman Sachs economists on a whim. The group has created equivalents of the World Bank and the IMF. It already has or plans to build its own communication network of (snoop-proof) undersea internet cables. There are rumors that a new BRICS currency is in the works, which would be a digital/virtual currency while the existing national currencies continue to be in use (unlike the Euro and European currency union).
This BRICS currency worries the West, especially if it is tied to a certain number of grams of gold. In the medium run this is likely to hurt the dollar’s status as the global reserve currency, which is the objective. This is because many third-country transactions will no longer be denominated in dollars, but in the BRICS currency. Over time, given possible deterioration in the US economy, the dollar will fall against gold, which means it will also fall against the BRICS currency.
In other words, the US’s weaponization of the dollar, and the freezing of assets held by Russia, has boomeranged, and may accelerate the decline of its status as the reserve currency. In fact that may also have been an impetus for the expansion of BRICS by bringing in six more members, that is, the BRICS+. The more countries that use the BRICS currency, the better. Some 20 more countries applied to be added to BRICS, and they may be added later.
The six new entrants are: Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. So far so good. But why these? The unfortunate answer is that these are the countries China wanted there, as force-multipliers. Let’s look at them in more detail.
With Saudi Arabia and Russia, BRICS+ will have the two biggest exporters of hydrocarbons in the world, with Iran and the UAE also in the top 10. With Russia and China, it has two of three of the largest arsenals of nuclear weapons. With China and India, it has two of the largest five economies in the world. With China, India and Russia, it has three of the top six foreign exchange reserves in the world. BRICS+ is a force to reckon with. That’s the good news.
The bad news is that all of the new entrants are connected, one way or other, to China. Thus it stands to reason that they are all ‘sponsored’ by China, and will vote with China, imperiling India’s clout and interests. Let us look at the links (also see Tara Kartha on firstpost.com https://www.firstpost.com/opinion/cementing-brics-alliance-requires-a-chinese-turnaround-to-enhance-its-global-influence-13051342.html who notes that they are all members of the infamous Belt and Road Initiative):
Argentina: their economy, as usual, is in trouble, and they are seeking an IMF loan to repay a Chinese loan which they took to part-repay an IMF loan. Rinse, repeat
Egypt: they have huge outstanding loans ($180 billion), with China as their fourth largest creditor
Ethiopia: they have a $14.3 billion loan outstanding to China. And remember the WHO chief Tedros (okay, he’s Eritrean, but close) who was so beholden to China?
Iran: China is basically bringing Iran out of the isolation that the US imposed on it. They also brokered a deal between Iran and Saudis. Chances are that Iran will be grateful
Saudi Arabia: MBS has shown how irritated he’s with Biden, and this is one more way.. If Saudis go with petroyuan or BRICS currency, the dollar’s decline will accelerate
UAE: Like Saudi Arabia, UAE is also developing economic relations with China as well as India. As a regional entrepot, UAE is seeing a lot of Chinese investment too.
Given all this, in effect the addition of these nations gives China pretty much a veto power over the BRICS+ group’s decisions. Of course, Russia is ever more dependent on China, and is unlikely to rock the boat. Surely, down the road, China’s friends such as Pakistan will also be invited to join.
All is not lost, however. India is now the swing state that both the factions need to woo: the American-led faction and the Chinese-led faction. The West seems to believe that they can keep India as a vassal, by allowing it to grow to a certain extent, but remain mostly a producer of raw materials and talent. China, I suspect, wants to crush India lest it challenge what it believes is its rightful hegemony in Asia. I guess honey, so to speak, and vinegar.
Thus, the saber-rattling. There are indications that China is going to continue to press India hard. One is the report that they are laying down tunnels and bunkers on a large scale in Chinese-occupied Aksai Chin. This suggests both defensive and offensive intent. I believe this means Xi intends, at best, to intimidate India; at worst, to attack India rather than Taiwan, not least because the PLA are quite sure none of India’s (Quad) friends will provide material support in that case. It’s different with Taiwan, which also has things (semiconductors) China needs.
There are persistent reports of a dramatic slowdown of the Chinese economy, with food stocks low after devastating floods earlier this year. No government likes a hungry populace hit by economic woes. What is the solution? External acts of aggression, of course. Nothing like a nice little war to stimulate those jingoistic sentiments and direct anger outwards.
So China has the means and the motive to attack India in the Himalayas, hoping for a reprise of 1962: they were starving at that time, yet managed to surprise the Indian brass and grab a lot of territory. Now they are much better off, better equipped, and they could calculate that Indians are still fair game. That would be a tactical mistake, but Xi’s hubris knows no bounds. I would not be surprised if there is a Chinese attack calculated to disrupt India’s scheduled 2024 elections, with fifth columnists doing their usual things.
The Chinese do mean what they claim in their maps. We know this from their aggression based on the illusory 9-dash line in the South China Sea. The stories of stapled visas are legion. They have no intention of relaxing their pressure on India, which they consider inferior due to skin color. Chinese are at least as conscious of skin color as anybody else on earth.
Furthermore, they will do anything to make India lose face, which is probably the sentiment behind the reported decision of Xi Jinping to skip the G20 summit in India.
Then there is the Pew survey of 30,000 people in 24 countries, mostly from the G20. It is a little disappointing to note that there are persistently negative to indifferent views on India in much of the world, even though things are improving. The relentless propaganda about India ‘betraying’ the West over Ukraine, the increasing Hindu-hatred fueled partly by Islamists and Khalistanis, and British bile, for example about why India needs a space program when it is starving and defecating in the streets: all this adds up.
Overall, 34% of respondents outside India are well disposed towards India. Only 28% said India has become more influential. However, 37% support PM Modi. In particular, India is losing popularity among European nationals, several have become more negative: France, Spain, Germany, UK, Poland.
Surprisingly, negative views about India from BRICS+ nations are high: Brazil 43%, Argentina 34% and South africa 51%. This is alarming, in light of China ‘stacking’ BRICS+ with its friends. On the plus side, a narrow majority of respondents in the US, 51% are positive towards India, though you wouldn’t gather that from the Biden Administration’s stance.
On the other hand, local perceptions are positive: Indians think things are improving. Well, that is comforting. But clearly, there needs to be more work on the narrative-building side and perhaps on trade initiatives.
All told, Indians need to come back to earth from the Pragyan and Praggnananda highs. There is much work to be done.
1540 words, Sept 1, 2023